Loving from a Distance

I feel compelled today to move from the more “contemplative” side of this blog to the “activist” side. We are on the front-end of what is going to be a horrific situation. This is not an overstatement. I amour a public health nurse, and I have already been on the front lines of a viral epidemic 5 years ago with Ebola in West Africa. At this point, the issue of how horrific this virus become in the United States (and the world) is simply a math equation. There will not be a vaccine soon enough, so that is not our hope for mitigation. The only variable that we get to manipulate in this equation is ourselves. Our own actions. We are the variable that determines the end of the equation. And our only control right now comes in two forms – the things we do to protect ourselves, and the things we do to protect others.

Let’s start with ourselves, since that is usually everyone go-to. This will be a little bit graphic – but we need to understand. This virus is spread through droplets – that is particles of spit or mucus (like snot) that contain the virus and then get spit, coughed, or sneezed out and land on other people or objects. If on other people, it’s a quick transmission. If on objects, it depends on the material the object is made of how quickly the virus lives on that object. But for the sake of simplicity, let’s say 24 hours, because that is about the conservative average life-span of the virus on all the materials. So, that means, that if yesterday afternoon, at 4:00 pm, someone went to the grocery store and used the shopping cart, and coughed on it, spewing some virus onto the handle, and then today at 10:00 am, you go to that grocery store and grab that same grocery cart, you have now transferred the virus to your hands. What you do next is what determines your own risk. Do you wash your hands with soap and (preferably hot) water every time you touch a public object? Probably not. That’s seriously impractical. Do you clean off the cart and your hands the minute you get it? That will help, if you are using a cleaner that is effective against viruses. Do you scratch your eye, wipe your nose, pick your teeth, or put anything in your mouth at any time after touching that cart and before cleaning your hands? Well, you see the point, right? Or, take it another step, do you NOT touch your face, but you do pick up your phone while shopping because it rings, or you get a text, or your shopping list is on your phone like mine is? You have now transferred the virus from your cart to your phone through your hands.

So, washing your hands, and not touching your eyes, nose, or mouth are critical – but then, so is just not going anywhere. Because you don’t have control over another person behind you in line, or passing you in the aisle, coughing or sneezing right when you walk by – passing right through the cloud of invisible moisture particles they just spewed out, possibly containing the virus. (Yes, this is true of all respiratory viruses, and is how we pass around the common cold and the flu as well, but there is a difference in this that becomes important to the math.)

Here’s a problem with this virus – a lot of people who will get it (and that will be a LOT of people), are not really going to feel very sick, so they are not going to stay home in bed, like those who have the flu. Thus, they are out and about, coughing and sneezing, or just shedding the virus in their respirations – onto objects that others are going to touch, or into their breathing space.

And that’s where it starts to get tricky.

Public health officials around the world know how to project the spread of viruses like this as soon as they can measure trends, which we can now do thanks to the horrors in China, Korea, and Italy. They are projecting that without EXTREME measures of isolation (see China and Italy), by May, there will be 200,000,000 (200 million) Americans who get the virus. “But it’s not really worse than the flu…!” Yes, yes it is.

The fatality rate on this virus, according to modest projections and various factors, is 1%. One percent of 200 million is 2 million people. That is a LOT of people! That is more American people than have died in every single war America has fought in since the Revolution! And this doesn’t even account for the global loss. Is it acceptable that 2 million people die in America in the next 2 months?? No, it is not. Why? Because we can ACTUALLY do something about that number. That number of cases is based on our current measures to contain the virus. Our current measures are hardly anything. Ask anyone in China or Italy right now. Yes, most of us went to church online this morning. Great. Yes, schools have closed all over (but not all of them, which is beyond me…). Super. But the vast majority of Americans are out and about, eating at restaurants and going to whatever events are not yet canceled and taking their kids to play places and shopping at stores like all they are going to do is sit on the toilet for the next 2 weeks. (What is THAT about?? I can’t even figure it out…)

So, here is where we get to the second thing – protecting others. Yes, you are fine. Yes, your kids are healthy, and you are only getting together with other healthy kids. How do you know? If you can shed the virus before you have symptoms (which you can), how do you know that you are healthy, and how do you know if the person with you is healthy? I have a slight sore throat today. That is the first symptom of Covid-19. I doubt it is that – but I can tell you that I wouldn’t go near my parents today unless they were dying already. They are not – they are healthy, but they are also in their late 70’s, and in a high fatality factor risk group. It is KIND for me to not be near them with a sore throat.

Let’s talk a little bit about what we ACTUALLY need to do to make this social distancing thing work. None of this is easy. It is horribly inconvenient. It will have serious financial implications. It will be extremely uncomfortable. And it requires us to think outside of our skin WAY more than we are okay with doing. Here is a fantastic article that explains how reducing the people out and about will impact the spread of the virus. Again, it’s a numbers game at this point.

1. Don’t go to restaurants. Yes, I know that there is going to be a huge economic impact with this thing, and we should support the local economy. I am not an economist – but I can tell you for sure that 200 million Americans with the virus in a few weeks and 2 million dead Americans is going to have a much more significant economic, social, and emotional impact. Eat your pantry. If a restaurant remains open, order delivery. But also keep in mind that people are going to work when they are slightly sick, because no one wants to lose their job in these troubling times. Have you seen how 17 and 18-year-old boys (or girls) wash their hands?? I’ve had 3 of those, and I am a handwashing fiend. It isn’t pretty.
2. Don’t shop. Get what you need and stay home. Order online. Use Instacart or the store’s delivery system. Let the delivery person put your stuff outside your door, and then go get it after they leave. We’re not talking about being paranoid here – we are trying to come into alignment with reality.
3. Don’t get together with groups. I know, it’s lonely and boring to stay at home. Even introverts are going to get sick of it by the end of this thing. But, as my mother always says – “This too shall pass.” And it will. In this moment, WE have control over how quickly it passes.
4. Don’t go to work. This is tough. I realize. Not everyone has that option, but what we need to be doing is determining who DOES have that option, and everyone that does have it, should take it. It will be a minute before our government comes up with relief packages for those who can’t work, but it will happen. It won’t be perfect, but it will happen. The fact that it is now a national emergency allows FEMA to get involved, and just like after Katrina, or Andrew, or whatever other major disasters have taken place, there will be some aid coming. We will be slow about it, but there will very likely be help. The less people that actually need that help (AKA – the less people that get sick and the more people that can work from home doing so), the better off we will all be. Some serious evaluation is needed.
5. Don’t take your kids on playdates or to play places. Stay home. I know they will be stir-crazy. The question now – to which we hold the answer – is how long will the stir-crazy last? We can shorten it by starting now and letting this virus run its course and die out. They do that. Your kids will not be set back as humans by missing out on a few weeks of school. They can do some educational stuff at home, especially if their school can figure out e-learning, or they can chill and get creative. Let’s return to blanket forts and Legos and Lincoln Logs and paper dolls. They will be fine. But do be alert to their stress level, and let them process. And watch your own stress level – because it’s contagious.

Now, let’s talk about teenagers and young adults. The problem with teens and young adults in this thing is 2 fold: 1) they typically believe they are impervious to harm and danger, 2) they have cars, keys, and friends – and they like to be social. It is hard to contain a teen or young adult who is not internalizing these realities. Here are some suggestions:

1. Encourage the use of appropriate technology. This is not my go-to, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Most of your teens and young adults already know how to live their lives through technology. Let them play live video games with an online component. They need to interact with their friends. Encourage them to set up group hang-outs with their friends through apps like “House Party” or other social hang-out means. Yes, there is a need for monitoring, but there is also a very real need for having social interaction in these times.
2. Reengage them at home in ways that may have gone by the wayside in their busy, social lives. Play games. Do puzzles. Make popcorn and have movie marathons. Encourage them to learn a new skill online. Are they interested in creating apps? Have them google it and give it a try. Do they love art? YouTube is teeming with art instruction videos.
3. Educate them. They are smart. Information decreases fear and increases appropriate behavior. They are already aware. Give them solid tools to use to make good choices. Appeal to their desire for social justice. This is truly a social justice issue. Making good choices about our public lives right now is a practical way of doing good for society as a whole. Make rules as a family, and get everyone’s buy-in.
4. Model good behavior. You can’t ask them to give up getting together with their friends if you aren’t making the same changes in your own lives. Young people have really good radars on hypocrisy. If you have to go out, explain the rationale. Talking through rationale is a good way of helping everyone walk this out.
5. Recognize their stress and find ways for them to process. There are a LOT of good online counseling services if you need real help. But teens are well aware of what’s happening, and it can cause a lot of anxiety for many of them.
6. Take their keys. Really. If you just can’t get your kids to buy-in to appropriate social constraints right now, then impose it on them. You are the parent. It is temporary, and we all have to do the right thing – by choice or by force.

The reality is, if we as adults don’t start doing the right things by choice, those choices are soon going to be taken away from us. We are Americans, and we LOVE our “choice.” But again, desperate times call for desperate measures. Self-imposed constraints are easier to live with than forced ones – for all of us. But we have to choose that now. Those who have gone before us are appealing to us to learn from their mistakes.

There is SO much more to say about this. Besides the deaths, extreme social distancing is the ONLY way we are going to allow our health care system to keep up with the number of very sick people that are going to be needing to access those systems. Conservative estimates indicate that 16 million Americans (roughly 10% of a conservative estimate – 160 million – of people contracting the virus) will become extremely sick, requiring hospitalization and respiratory support. Currently, in the US, there are 925,000 hospital beds. Total. And 160,000 respirators. Do that math. There is one respirator for every 100 people that will need one. You can’t share a respirator. Either you get one, or you don’t. The ramifications of this type of scenario, already at play in Italy, are devastating.

I want to end (for now) with a few “do’s.” There are a lot of “do not’s” in this situation, and they all need to be heeded. But there are a few “do’s” that are equally important.

1. Take this seriously. Please. Please. Take this seriously. I saw this in Ebola, and I’m seeing it again. The epidemic is serious. Let’s be serious about stopping it. This is not the flu. It’s vastly different. You can read the links in this article or google it to find out why.
2. Cancel your plans. All of them. Your trip can wait. We need to stop taking this around the world.
3. Stay out of the health care facilities if you can. If you have a sore throat or a cough, stay home. Use telehealth services if you have access to them (google it). Treat your symptoms and wait. You are not going to get a test for Covid-19 unless you are seriously ill with relevant symptoms, have specific risk factors (like a known exposure), or you are very rich and famous. Let the medical personnel handle the really sick people. This will become more and more critical as this ramps up.
4. Check on your family and friends – remotely if possible. Stay connected. Call people. FaceTime or Skype or WhatsApp them. Make sure people are ok. We all need support in these times. Let’s be there for each other. We need to love others well during difficult times. Let’s get creative with our socialization in these days. Praise God for the technology we do have. That sets this epidemic apart from all others in the past as well.
5. Boost your immune system. These things are not magic pills or sure-fire ways to avoid a virus, but they can help your body be ready to fight the virus should you get it. There is no cure for viruses, like antibiotics for bacteria, your body just has to fight it off. The stronger your immune system is, the better your chances in that fight. Stay hydrated – very hydrated. Take echinacea and Vitamin C – in large doses. Take elderberry syrup. Eat nutritious meals. Get adequate sleep. These things all help you be ready to fight an invading virus.
6. Be generous. You may not be going to your church building right now, but your church still has salaries and bills to pay. Also, the ministries that you support (or don’t and could) still have people to pay and programs to maintain, many in high-risk areas that are terrified that they will have to shut down during this crisis. If you hadn’t thought of that and are wondering where you could invest in the lives of vulnerable people, here’s a suggestion. 🙂
7. Pray. Pray. Pray. We do not need to be people paralyzed by fear. We need to be rational, reasonable, filled with faith, and careful. But we do not need to be filled with fear. A little afraid? Yes. A little fear goes a long way in keeping people safe. But too much fear has the opposite effect.
8. Trust. God is sovereign over microbes. This virus will only go as far as He determines. He asks us to fill the earth and subdue it. That includes subduing microbes that want to devastate it. It is part of our “creation mandate” to do all we can to bring this into submission and work toward shalom. We need to be people walking in faith. Here is the song that got my son and me through the terrifying days of Ebola. We pumped it up every. single. time. it came on the radio, and during those days – thank God – that was a lot (because K-LOVE only has a 20-song playlist…). We can act in faith and love others well, even while we act responsibly.

I may write more on this later, as the situation continues to change daily, but this is enough for now. Love like you’re not scared. That’s the call of Jesus.